What does this 2020–24 swing ranking show?

It orders states by Presidential margin shift, 2020–24. It is a comparison of this one published measure, not an overall ranking of where to live.

Where do these figures come from?

MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2024 supplies this measure. States without a comparable published value are shown as not ranked rather than estimated.

How should I use this ranking?

Use it to narrow a search, then open a state or county profile for the underlying figures, source dates and caveats. A statewide number may not describe every neighbourhood.

Lowest 2020–24 swing by state

Presidential margin shift, 2020–24.

This measure has no better end. The order describes the states, it does not rank them — see the other direction.

Change in the two-party presidential margin from 2020 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the place moved toward Republicans; negative means it moved toward Democrats. This is movement between two elections, not a prediction or a measure of local races.

How to read this ranking

North Carolina has the lowest published 2020–24 swing in this comparison, at R+0.7. The next states shown are Washington (R+1.0) and Oklahoma (R+1.2).

The table orders 51 states by presidential margin shift, 2020–24. It describes one published measure, not an overall judgment about where to live.

Use the result as a starting point, then compare the underlying source, dates, and local county figures before making a decision. Change in the two-party presidential margin from 2020 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the place moved toward Republicans; negative means it moved toward Democrats. This is movement between two elections, not a prediction or a measure of local races.

1North CarolinaR+0.7
2WashingtonR+1.0
3OklahomaR+1.2
4UtahR+1.2
5NebraskaR+1.4
6KansasR+1.5
7WisconsinR+1.6
8OregonR+1.8
9MaineR+2.1
10GeorgiaR+2.4
11ColoradoR+2.6
12MissouriR+2.6
13WyomingR+2.7
14District of ColumbiaR+2.9
15MinnesotaR+2.9
16PennsylvaniaR+2.9
17AlaskaR+3.0
18ArkansasR+3.0
19IndianaR+3.0
20West VirginiaR+3.0
21North DakotaR+3.1
22OhioR+3.1
23South DakotaR+3.1
24LouisianaR+3.3
25MontanaR+3.5
26VermontR+3.9
27MichiganR+4.2
28DelawareR+4.3
29VirginiaR+4.3
30IowaR+4.6
31New HampshireR+4.6
32KentuckyR+4.7
33MarylandR+4.8
34New MexicoR+4.8
35AlabamaR+5.1
36NevadaR+5.5
37ConnecticutR+5.6
38IdahoR+5.7
39ArizonaR+5.8
40IllinoisR+6.1
41South CarolinaR+6.1
42HawaiiR+6.3
43MississippiR+6.4
44TennesseeR+6.4
45Rhode IslandR+7.0
46MassachusettsR+8.0
47TexasR+8.1
48CaliforniaR+9.0
49FloridaR+9.8
50New YorkR+9.8
51New JerseyR+10.0

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Frequently asked questions

What does this ranking show?: It orders states by Presidential margin shift, 2020–24. It is one measure, not an overall verdict on where to live.
Where do the figures come from?: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2024. States without a comparable published figure are listed as not ranked rather than estimated.
How should I use it?: Use it to narrow your search, then open a state or county profile for the source date, caveats and local context.

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<iframe src="https://movermath.com/embed/2020-24-swing" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="Presidential margin shift, 2020–24 by state"></iframe>

Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2024. · How this is built

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