Rankings · Politics & voting

Lowest 2020–24 swing by state

Presidential margin shift, 2020–24.

This measure has no better end. The order describes the states, it does not rank them — see the other direction.

Change in the two-party presidential margin from 2020 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the place moved toward Republicans; negative means it moved toward Democrats. This is movement between two elections, not a prediction or a measure of local races.

  1. 1North CarolinaR+0.7
  2. 2WashingtonR+1.0
  3. 3OklahomaR+1.2
  4. 4UtahR+1.2
  5. 5NebraskaR+1.4
  6. 6KansasR+1.5
  7. 7WisconsinR+1.6
  8. 8OregonR+1.8
  9. 9MaineR+2.1
  10. 10GeorgiaR+2.4
  11. 11ColoradoR+2.6
  12. 12MissouriR+2.6
  13. 13WyomingR+2.7
  14. 14District of ColumbiaR+2.9
  15. 15MinnesotaR+2.9
  16. 16PennsylvaniaR+2.9
  17. 17AlaskaR+3.0
  18. 18ArkansasR+3.0
  19. 19IndianaR+3.0
  20. 20West VirginiaR+3.0
  21. 21North DakotaR+3.1
  22. 22OhioR+3.1
  23. 23South DakotaR+3.1
  24. 24LouisianaR+3.3
  25. 25MontanaR+3.5
  26. 26VermontR+3.9
  27. 27MichiganR+4.2
  28. 28DelawareR+4.3
  29. 29VirginiaR+4.3
  30. 30IowaR+4.6
  31. 31New HampshireR+4.6
  32. 32KentuckyR+4.7
  33. 33MarylandR+4.8
  34. 34New MexicoR+4.8
  35. 35AlabamaR+5.1
  36. 36NevadaR+5.5
  37. 37ConnecticutR+5.6
  38. 38IdahoR+5.7
  39. 39ArizonaR+5.8
  40. 40IllinoisR+6.1
  41. 41South CarolinaR+6.1
  42. 42HawaiiR+6.3
  43. 43MississippiR+6.4
  44. 44TennesseeR+6.4
  45. 45Rhode IslandR+7.0
  46. 46MassachusettsR+8.0
  47. 47TexasR+8.1
  48. 48CaliforniaR+9.0
  49. 49FloridaR+9.8
  50. 50New YorkR+9.8
  51. 51New JerseyR+10.0
Put this map on your own site

Free to use. The chart names its source and links back, so it stays honest wherever it ends up.

<iframe src="https://movermath.com/embed/2020-24-swing" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="Presidential margin shift, 2020–24 by state"></iframe>

Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2024. · How this is built