Rankings · Politics & voting

Highest 2020–24 swing by state

Presidential margin shift, 2020–24.

This measure has no better end. The order describes the states, it does not rank them — see the other direction.

Change in the two-party presidential margin from 2020 to 2024, in percentage points. Positive means the place moved toward Republicans; negative means it moved toward Democrats. This is movement between two elections, not a prediction or a measure of local races.

  1. 1New JerseyR+10.0
  2. 2FloridaR+9.8
  3. 3New YorkR+9.8
  4. 4CaliforniaR+9.0
  5. 5TexasR+8.1
  6. 6MassachusettsR+8.0
  7. 7Rhode IslandR+7.0
  8. 8MississippiR+6.4
  9. 9TennesseeR+6.4
  10. 10HawaiiR+6.3
  11. 11IllinoisR+6.1
  12. 12South CarolinaR+6.1
  13. 13ArizonaR+5.8
  14. 14IdahoR+5.7
  15. 15ConnecticutR+5.6
  16. 16NevadaR+5.5
  17. 17AlabamaR+5.1
  18. 18MarylandR+4.8
  19. 19New MexicoR+4.8
  20. 20KentuckyR+4.7
  21. 21IowaR+4.6
  22. 22New HampshireR+4.6
  23. 23DelawareR+4.3
  24. 24VirginiaR+4.3
  25. 25MichiganR+4.2
  26. 26VermontR+3.9
  27. 27MontanaR+3.5
  28. 28LouisianaR+3.3
  29. 29North DakotaR+3.1
  30. 30OhioR+3.1
  31. 31South DakotaR+3.1
  32. 32AlaskaR+3.0
  33. 33ArkansasR+3.0
  34. 34IndianaR+3.0
  35. 35West VirginiaR+3.0
  36. 36District of ColumbiaR+2.9
  37. 37MinnesotaR+2.9
  38. 38PennsylvaniaR+2.9
  39. 39WyomingR+2.7
  40. 40ColoradoR+2.6
  41. 41MissouriR+2.6
  42. 42GeorgiaR+2.4
  43. 43MaineR+2.1
  44. 44OregonR+1.8
  45. 45WisconsinR+1.6
  46. 46KansasR+1.5
  47. 47NebraskaR+1.4
  48. 48OklahomaR+1.2
  49. 49UtahR+1.2
  50. 50WashingtonR+1.0
  51. 51North CarolinaR+0.7
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Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000–2024. · How this is built